ROAM (Risk, Opportunities, Adaptation, and Mitigation) Working Group Final Report

Risk

Risk Category

Description

In Scope Examples

Out of Scope Examples

Next Steps

(Mitigations/Opportunities/Comments)

Average Impact

Average Likelihood

Average Risk-Level

Air Quality

Root Cause

The risk of poor air quality adversely affecting VIU resources and programs.

* Increase in severity and frequency of high Air Quality Index (AQI) ratings leading to unsafe working conditions, class cancellations, and/or VIU closures
* Extreme heat building up in buildings and classrooms
* High AQI more likely in summer months, disproportionally affecting summer camps and other outdoor programs
* HVAC system – costs of additional installations, upgrades, and upkeep
* High AQI prevents travel to/from remote regions or VIU, leading to missing community-specific opportunities
* Students requiring additional safe well-ventilated areas to study, which they may not have at home

* Air quality’s effect on human health and wellbeing (Human Health & Wellbeing)
* Forest fires (Severe Weather Events)
* Disproportionate effect on rural Indigenous communities (Indigenous Peoples)

* Providing clean, cool spaces for future potential heat domes.

* We should be thinking about contingency plans for these kinds of events.  Air filtration systems, facilities, staff and how this might work when these events occur

1.88

3.38

6.33

Global Warming

Root Cause

The risk of VIU not reducing GHG emissions at expected rates

* Inability to meet targets or demonstrate a decrease
* Increased costs of carbon offsets
* Damage to VIU’s reputation if perceived to not be taking significant or timely action
* Other institutions outpacing VIU’s efforts
* Unable to use environmental record as recruitment tool

* Work from home; study from home

* GHG Reductions as part of decision making

* Geothermal exchange system and future expansion which reduces GHG emissions associated with building heating and cooling.

 * Progressive fleet electrification

 * Building envelope improvements when renovating existing buildings (follows BC Building/STEP  Code for energy efficiency). 

1.50

3.13

4.69

Ocean Acidification

Root Cause

The risk of increasing acidity in oceans

* Estimated 0.15 reduction in pH by 2050
* Harm to sea life such as shellfish, finfish, and aquaculture
* Impact to work done at Deep Bay Marine Field Station
* Impact to Aquaculture programs
* Opportunity to advance research at Deep Bay to adapt species to climate change

* Impacts on sea life leading to food shortages (Food Security)
* Impacts on sea life leading to reduced economic opportunities (Economic Activity) 

* Land-based Aquaculture

2.25

2.88

6.47

Sea Level Rise

Direct Impacts

The risk that global warming will cause sea levels to rise, and coastal communities around Vancouver Island will be underwater

* Loss of use of coastal land for programs and research
* Loss of costal land for housing leading to increased competition for housing and increased prices; students unable to attend due to lack of available housing
* Property value for coastal real estate reduced or unrecoverable leading to investment losses
* Impact on Indigenous Communities that are located on the coast
* Increased risk of erosion for Milner Gardens
* Impact on satellite campuses

* Severe storms and hurricanes affecting coastal communities (Severe Weather Events)
* Additional disproportionate effects on rural Indigenous communities (Indigenous Peoples)

* Education, research and outreach with municipal and indigenous governments/communities

1.75

2.00

3.50

Severe Weather Events
(Drought, Fire, Flood, Heat, Landslides, Wind)

Direct Impacts

The risk of an increase in frequency and severity of adverse weather events in British Columbia

* Severe storms and wind storms
* Coastal, riverine, and urban flooding
  - Flooding in parking lots leading to infrastructure damage
* Multiple interlinked severe weather events (ex. Drought leads to wildfires, which leads to deteriorated soil, which leads to landslides once there is rain)
* Extreme Precipitation and Landslides
  - Parts of campus prone to landslides
- Blockages of transportation infrastructure that connects campuses
* Severe Coastal Storm Surge
* Severe Wildfire Season à Smoke
  - Loss of revenue from woodlot
  - Loss of teaching and research opportunities
* Risk to ongoing ability to run field trips, field schools, and field research
* Extreme temperatures putting additional stress on heating and cooling systems
* Increased need to close campus due to unsafe conditions; direct impact on service delivery
*Increased costs for maintaining safe conditions on campus (ex. Frequent snowstorms; hiring snow removal)
* Electrical grid failure and/or increased frequency and duration of power outages
* Health & Safety – Increased risk of injury or death
* Severe weather’s effect on housing – evacuation of areas may be required for weeks or months and inadequate local temporary housing/hotels resources could mean that students have to drop out
* Forest fires threatening buildings and infrastructure
* Transportation of goods limited due to severe weather events

* Building degradation – many of VIU’s buildings have a high FCI (Facility Condition Index) thus making them less resilient to extreme weather (Infrastructure)
* Consequential risks to settlements prone to annual/regular severe weather events (ie flooding and wildfires) (Infrastructure)

* Heating and cooling infrastructure deficit – no cooling in many buildings and unaffordable to resolve immediately

* Remote study/work an opportunity for mitigation

* White roofs/reflective roofing

3.13

3.88

12.11

Water Security (Quality & Quantity)

Direct Impacts

The risk of freshwater resources being used up or contaminated and VIU having to adapt to these changes

* Heavy exploitation of limited water supplies – Reputational risk if VIU does not lead the way to reduce water usage
* Sanitation challenges – Ex. Need to upgrade sinks and toilets on campus to use less water and greywater recycling
* Deteriorating freshwater management infrastructure – Boil water advisories increase; risk of students getting sick or dehydrated
* Intensified droughts – Additional costs for grounds maintenance and/or replaced existing grass/plants with drought tolerant varieties
* Earlier runoff from diminished snowpacks will increase scarcity during the summer peak water demand period leading to seasonal water shortages – Extreme cases could require campus closure in the summer
* Irrigated agriculture using up water supply, Harmac Pulp mill
* Increases pressures on limited groundwater as a substitute for diminished surface water supplies – (ex Horticulture Centre’s reliance on well water)* Municipal water contamination and supply – Reliance on City of Nanaimo’s infrastructure; possibility for Long-term Water Shortage; Saltwater Intrusion
* Programs that rely on water sources such as fisheries, agriculture, and culinary could be affected
* VIU’s impact on Nanaimo’s water system (ex. Overflow from our holding tanks)

* Irrigated agriculture’s lack of water leading to food production losses (Food Security)
* Flooding (Severe Weather Events)
* Damage to aquatic ecosystems (Ecosystem Balance)

* Rainwater & greywater capture

* landscaping & xeriscaping (A landscaping method that employs drought-resistant plants and special techniques to conserve water.)

* Water as a commodity

* Programs focussed on water protection and mediation

* Technology for water treatment

* Hydroponics agricultural programs

* This is something we should be looking at as the RDN has done a lot to increase storage in our watershed and close to town.  But rain water catchment or wells for VIU would be interesting to think on.

2.75

3.00

8.25

Infrastructure

Consequential Impacts

The consequential risks from damage and loss of use of city resources on Vancouver Island

* Infrastructure damage (ex. washout of highways that connect students to VIU campuses; damage to supply chains; damage to VIU buildings)
* Loss of services (ex. long-term ferry service disruption)
* Damage to heritage resources (totem poles, petroglyphs, fossils)
* Displacement of people
* Settlements prone to experiencing repeated severe weather events at an increasing rate (ex. Annual flooding or wildfires)
* Pressures on the housing market; students, faculty, and staff cannot find affordable housing in Nanaimo

* Loss of use of cities due to sea level rise (Sea Level Rise)
* Immediate risks due to unexpected severe weather events (Severe Weather Events)
* Reduction in economic activities due to infrastructure damage (Economic Activity)

* Densification – technology and vision

* Role in technology around urban centres

3.25

3.00

9.75

Economic Activity

Consequential Impacts

The risk of extreme events and climate hazards adversely affecting economic activities at VIU and surrounding regions

* Disrupted supply chain infrastructure and trade
* Limited availability of supplies – higher costs, panic buying, reputational risk if VIU has access to supplies while others go without
* Unsustainable economic and consumption trends and paradigms
* Market and non-market damage
* Disruption to livelihoods
* Key supplies or services becoming unavailable, leading to class or program cancellation or significant costly changes to curriculum

* Consider tracking increased climate related costs by department –include this factor in projected budget lines.  Include such costs in depreciation costs for infrastructure (foundations, roofs etc, 

2.50

3.00

7.50

Ecosystem Balance
(Ocean & Land)

Consequential Impacts

The risk of rising air, water, ocean, and ground temperatures restructuring ecosystems and contributing to the redistribution and mortality of plant, fish, bird, mammal, and other faunal species

* Altered ecological processes
* Reduction in Ecosystem Connectivity
* Amplification of other anthropogenic threats to protected and iconic species and habitats essential to VIU’s programs, community, or brand.
* Loss of Forest Resources (ex. 25% decline in timber growing stock by 2050) leading to significant changes for Forestry programs
* Impact on marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems leading to program and/or revenue changes for Deep Bay and Aquaculture programs
* Increased Incidence of Vector-borne Disease (ex. At least a doubling of Lyme disease cases) leading to increased risks for field work
* Long-term biodiversity
* Increases in invasive species on campus – ex. Cost to manage bunnies, loss of revenue on woodlot from ivy choking out trees, etc…
* Decrease in indigenous species on campus – ex. Loss of flora that support bees and other pollinators
* Woodlot/Deep Bay/Milner loss of teaching and research areas (& possible opportunities)
* Glacier and snowpack mass loss; estimated 25% decline by 2050 – Leading to impacts to field research.

* Impact on crops, livestock, fisheries, and aquaculture leading to food production losses (Food Security)
* Threats to iconic species and habitats impacting Indigenous peoples’ cultural practices (Indigenous Peoples)
* Ocean Acidification

* Welcoming climate refugees - Human migration from tropical to temperate zones

* Affective implications – SS; Faculty & Staff

2.38

2.63

6.23

Food Security

Consequential Impacts

The risk of climate induced redistribution and declines in local food production are a risk to food and nutritional security

* Shift in agricultural and fishery suitability ranges leading to less growing land on the island, higher production and importation costs of food
* Increased food costs reduce revenue capabilities of cafeteria; essential food services may need to be offered as a service with negative/neutral revenues
* Production losses of key crops, livestock, fisheries, and aquaculture products impacts ability to offer related programs
* Reduction in enrolment; community members can’t afford education because they must prioritize spending money on food
* Students’ experience difficulties with learning and cognition due to chronic nutritional deficiencies 

* Equitable distribution of limited food supplies to lower social economic groups (EDI)
* Food security issues leading to or caused by water insecurity (Water Security)
* Loss of economic activity within the agricultural industry (Economic Activity)

* Human immigration due to threats from food security

* Alternative food source

* Academic programs in agriculture at VIU

* Support local procurement to support/incentivize food production

* Partnerships with local food providers

* VIU part of the provincial government’s Food Hub that supports increased purchase from local BC foods with an eye to strengthening food security.

2.25

2.50

5.63

Human Health & Wellbeing

Consequential Impacts

The risk of rising temperatures negatively affecting human health and wellbeing for VIU community members

* High temperatures increasing mortality and morbidity
* Infrastructure upgrades required (ex. AC units in student housing; HVAC upgrades; additional water filtration)
* Severity of impacts influenced by age, gender, location, and socioeconomic conditions
* Poor air quality negatively affecting human health and wellbeing
* Restricts ability of people to walk, bike, or take transit to work – additional parking issues on campus, increases GHG emissions
* Mental and physical health of students, faculty, and staff – increased stress and anxiety could impact attendance, which if significant could lead to withdrawing from class
* Heat Wave (ex. Heat wave of at least three days that affects human health)

* Loss of life or wellbeing due to catastrophic weather events (Severe Weather Events)
* Loss of life or wellbeing due to food or water shortages (Food Security & Water Security)

* Create Community Safety Hub in weather events

* Develop a communications strategy for incoming students (student handbook, use of the Safety App, short orientation video messages etc, about the safety hubs)

* Work from home/study online during worst air quality events

3.00

3.38

10.13

Indigenous Peoples

Consequential Impacts

The risk of higher impacts for Indigenous Peoples for whom culture, identity, commerce, health, and wellbeing are closely connected to a resilient environment

* Indigenous cultural activities disrupted
* Small rural Indigenous communities impacted
* Disrupted livelihoods of Indigenous Peoples
* Reduction in wellbeing for Indigenous Peoples
* Needed support for Indigenous self-determination, recognizing Indigenous Peoples’ rights
* Supporting Indigenous knowledge based-adaptions to reduce climate change risks and achieve adaption success

* 7 Generations lens on our vision & commitments – 2 eyed seeing

* Consider hosting a learning circle at VIU with a set number of Indigenous people on the Island (from inside and outside VIU). Include those interested in sharing knowledge of climate action initiatives and helping provide VIU some direction on local engagement with First Nations /Metis communities and Indigenous led organizations on these issues over time. The learning circle group members will determine the scope of the group’s purpose, facilitation protocols, and the number and frequency of meetings. Commit resources to support the learning circle. Some of the learning circle events might take place as site visits to First Nations communities to see/learn from existing Indigenous initiatives.

* Engage with Shq'apthut Student services re gathering student input on climate related mitigation /safety as well as opportunities for student engagement as changemakers.

2.00

2.75

5.50

Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion (EDI)

Barriers to Mitigation

The risk of climate action not benefiting under-served VIU community members in an equitable, diverse, and inclusive manner

* Insufficient current practices that fail to address EDI impacts of climate change
* Lack of EDI approaches that integrate climate impact projections into near-term and long-term decision-making
* Need for equitable and transformative adaption policies focussed on sustainable and resilient land use, consumption patterns, economic activities, and nature-based solutions with safeguards

* Risks impacting Indigenous Peoples (Indigenous Peoples)

* Bring to EDI Steering Committee for comments

1.75

2.63

4.59

Financial

Barriers to Mitigation

The risk of not being able to mitigate risks due to financial constraints

* Adequate upfront funding not available to begin mitigation projects

* Ongoing funding not available to maintain mitigation efforts

* Expand research and advise VIU on all untapped available funding pots (government, philanthropic etc). Also research to project cost-benefit analysis of different mitigation options (rain capture etc)

* Consider untapped funding opportunities. E.g. see if VIUFA members would support an in-house climate action education fund (like the Steelworkers humanity fund)

3.38

3.50

11.81

Values Misalignment

Barriers to Mitigation

The risk of conflicting values leading to a lack support for VIU’s climate action efforts from different critical entities
(ex. global communities, levels of government, or internal VIU authorities)

* Misalignment of global community policies preventing implementation or undermining efforts of Canadian climate action efforts
* If Canada/VIU is seen as over or under valuing climate action in comparison to other cultures, this could have an affect on international student recruitment and enrolment
* Potential for less interest in international partnerships thereby decreasing experiential learning experiences as well as opportunity to mentor rising economies in areas of sustainability and climate action
* Misalignment of policies within and between levels of government preventing implementation of community-level adaptions to the local context
* Lack of coordination, planning, and national support
* Insufficient financial resources to implement climate-resilient policies and infrastructure

* Events derailing climate plans (ex. COVID)

* Establish VIU as a Hub – Strategic Plan

* More international collaborations and students

* Nanaimo council donut model supportive framework

* Align VIU with an international standard on climate change (eg ISO)

2.38

3.13

7.42

Politicization

Barriers to Mitigation

The risk of politicization interfering with, delaying, or limiting VIU’s climate action initiatives

* Internal VIU governance decisions to not take action or take different action than what is recommended
* Lack of adequate funding for projects that would significantly decrease VIU’s footprint (ex. expansion of the geo-exchange system or building that is responsive and resilient to climate change including opportunity for rain gardens or solar capture)
* Misinformation, rhetoric, and polarization of public opinion leading to delays or inaction
* Conflicts between vested parties and climate activists; intentional interference; public outcry
* Extreme responses from vested parties or climate activists disrupting more moderate climate action efforts
* Fragmented responsibility for planning, disaster management, and mitigation and adaptation actions hindering the development of integrated and equitable policies and their implementation

* Convey a holistic approach align with strategic plan, recruitment, etc.

2.63

3.13

8.20